CHIDILI EDOZIE
U14MM1190
Recently, Emir of Kano, Lamido Sanusi 11 proclaimed that if northern Nigeria was to become an independent country, it would be one of the poorest countries in the world, everything being equal.
First, one needs to first look at facts and realities before building opinion or sentiment. The most recent disaggregate statistics of 2010 showed the among the top 10 most contributing states, only two were from the north, which were Kano and Kaduna placed at 6th and 10th positions respectively; the remaining top eight states were all from the south. Looking at the bottom of the table (the relegation zone), eight out of the 10 least contributing states were from the north. Contributed only 26% of the total GDP of the country. This means that out of the GDO of $469 billion in that year, the north contributed only $95 billion.
Therefore, if things are to stay as they are, the north will compare with countries like Sudan and will be placed at 63rd position in the world GDP ranking, instead of the current Nigerian position of 26th, the south would then (without the north) be placed at 54th position.
Looking at poverty indicator, on average, 66% of northerners are poor taking the average poverty prevalence rate of the 20 northern states including the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) as reported by the United Nations using the international poverty threshold. Specifically, the North-west is the poorest region in the country, with an average poverty rate of 81%. The average poverty rate of the south is just 24%. So, this indicates relative higher income level and perhaps more expenditure and economic activity in the south than in the north.
Despite the agricultural potentials of the north, this has not helped improve the productivity of the region significantly. Firstly, from a macroeconomic perspective, agriculture contributed 21.26% to the Nigerian GDP in the last quarter of last year. This share did not only come from the north, because the south also engages in agricultural activity. So how much the north really contributes to the agricultural productivity of the country? It is obvious, it contributes higher than the south, but the sensitivity of the northern agricultural production to the GDP will not be more than 15%. This is what the Nigerian GDP will lose if the north stops agricultural production in my own estimate.
One major cause of the poverty trap in the north is the quest for easy and quick money. Relying and preferring government jobs or white collar jobs has crippled the economy of the region. While in the south, hard work, perseverance and creativity has been the major drive of growth and development, especially in the state of Lagos. Some northerners hold the belief that God is the provider (which is true), but tend not to make efforts and endure, they would rather spend all what they have for today, leaving tomorrow uncertain.
States’ reliance on federal government allocation adds salt to the wound, where any shock in the federal government revenue will directly affects the purchasing powers of the northerners and shake their economy. Due to limited number of competitive professionals, viable opportunities are easily accessed once one is qualified in the north. However, in the southern part of the country, professionals will have to create and endure new businesses and opportunities to survive, because there are many competitive professionals competing for limited opportunities, so the safest option for southerners is always to create the job, which helps in growing their economy. So, there is no resistance to new opportunities in the south as opposed to north where traditional jobs and employment are the preferred option.
When talking about development, we have to look at the educational level of the regions, and it is obvious that the south is ahead of the north in terms of educational enrolment. Where south has an average enrolment ration of 88%, the north has 57%. This alone can justify the feeble development of the north, as education drives development.
For every region to develop, it has to have leaders who are visionary, who look at today’s challenges and build a future free of those challenges. Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum once said “The word impossible is not in the leaders’ dictionaries. No matter how big the challenges, strong faith, determination and resolve will overcome them.” The north will need to be more receptive and revisit certain cultural ethics and value that are confused with religion, and reorient its social settings. The 21st century civilization and development require a cultural shift from rigid to elastic one, so as to fit and catch up with the tide of globalization.
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